Worldmaps were obtained with OCCULT 4.2.4.4
(D. Herald), using the astorb.dat version of 2016 Nov. 15 (by
L.H.Wasserman, Lowell Observatory) and the star catalogs Tycho-GAIA,
GAIA14 (by D.Herald), URAT1 and UCAC4.
USED CRITERIONS
I first selected all the trans-neptunian objects (TNO) of absolute
magnitude H < 5.7 according to the Minor Planet Center (MPC). Among
them I only kept those having at the date of the 2017 solar opposition
the one standard deviation (1 s.d.) minor semiaxis of their
uncertainty ellipse smaller than 140 mas (main criterion) and the
major semiaxis smaller then 500 mas (secondary criterion). I preferred
this not classic selection to the traditional "U parameter" of orbit
quality (from 0 to 9) calculated by the MPC. My sources of uncertainty
ellipses were Horizons from the JPL and AstDys-2 at
Pisa University, not the MPC. The uncertainty limits plotted as dashed
lines by OCCULT have a fourth source: the "current ephemeris
uncertainties" (CEU) provided by astorb.dat. Those various
uncertainty estimations are in rough agreement, but never in detail.
[Recall: The terrestrial diameter seen from the trans-neptunian belt
is between 370 and 500 mas typically, but drops a bit under 200 mas
from 136199 Eris or 2014 UZ224, the currently known most distant
bodies.]
Very limited override of above criterions was finally
allowed, for various reasons, to ~10 % bodies lying slightly off
limits. Especially I decided to reinstate six bodies from the Rio
& Meudon program which, for obscure reason, were falling off limits.
So the entire Rio & Meudon program (the Centaurs excepted) now is
covered by my predictions.
So has resulted a first list of 161
trans-neptunian objects. Then I added 134340 Pluto, a body in my
selection inner core, but computed not with astorb.dat as all
the asteroids, rather with DE435 (JPL Development Ephemeris) like a
normal planet. In spite of small diameters (Charon excepted) I added
the satellites of Pluto to my list. Then I also included Neptune,
discarding many unobservable occultations of faint stars by the planet
itself, but obviously keeping his major satellite Triton. [Triton,
although formally he is not a TNO, is comparable to many TNOs, is even
larger than Pluto and Eris, has an atmosphere like Pluto, and will
offer in Europe on 2017 Oct.05 a very interesting occultation of a
mag. 12 star.] Finally I also added te small TNO 2014 MU69, that
the "New Horizons" spacecraft will fly-by on 2019 Jan. 01. But as its
position uncertainty still is as large as 4 Earth diameters, I have
added it only for the record. [So, please, don't be obsessed by
the 2017 Jul. 17 event I propose!]
Eventually my special file
AsteroidElements.dat used by OCCULT contains 164 entries: 93
numbered bodies (among them 78 still with a provisional name), plus 71
not yet numbered.
A
MOSTLY EUROPEAN-ORIENTED SELECTION
My prime
purpose was to show only occultations of stars brighter than
the V magnitude +16.5, and potentially observable from Europe
and/or Canaries (whole Europe or only a part). Bright twilight always,
close horizon often, were exclusion factors I systematically applied
to discard many events. In contrast I was not careful of potential
Full Moon neighbourhood; so users have to evaluate the moonshine
impact by themselves.
In second lecture I added southern
tropical regions from where European people observe occultations more
and more often, either in remote mode or on site during stays: north
of Chile and adjacent countries (especially north of Argentina and
Brazil), plus oversea to the east: Namibia and Réunion island.
NB: I also plan a more worldwide
selection including a large Pacific area (Australia + New Zealand,
Japan, Hawaii...) with target stars up to the V magnitude +18.5. That
would be distributed to interested people on request, through
e-mailing of an OCCULT occelmnt file, i.e. a simple textfile
of 540 bytes per occultation item, to be processed by OCCULT.
Please well realize that in matter of trans-neptunian events, possible
large shift of the shadow path has to be anticipated
everytime. For example a path
predicted (and plotted) as crossing Africa in the vicinity of
terrestrial Equator might end into observed occultation, either 100
mas to the south from South-Africa, or 100 mas to the north from
southern Europe! Similarly any path missing Earth at seemingly
impressive distance has 50 % chance to be shifted inward. Sometimes it
happens that the TNO occults the star, at low elevation in countries
lying along the limb.
ABOUT THE ASTROMETRIC STAR CATALOGS
GAIA is
just beginning a revolution, still very far from achievement. Of
course I have used Tycho-GAIA and GAIA14 in absolute priority. However
they are tiny provisional subsets of the future GAIA database, and
only countain stars of magnitude R < 14.0. Unfortunately big
trans-neptunian bodies occulting stars of R magnitude 13 or 12 are
just a handful every year, and moreover occurrences for V < 12 are
quite vanishing. Due to the almost homogeneous distribution of stars
around the Sun, if we take complete inventory of all the V < 16.5
stars, only 17 % from them are brighter than R= 14.0, or 15 % brighter
than V= 14.0. So joining some more complete old catalog was an
absolute necessity for my 2017 trans-neptunian predictions.
Now what about the URAT1 and UCAC4? [I thank D.Herald, for
useful discussion about this thema]
UCAC4 has a faint stars
technical limit R ~ 16.0 or R ~16.3, i.e. V ~ 16.5 or so. URAT1
does not exist south from the declination -15 degrees, excepted around
Pluto and 2014 MU69 until 2017.0.
Among all the V < 16.5 stars
in the sky, 50 % stand between V=16.5 and V=15.6. As moving
trans-neptunian bodies made perfect random drawing through the stars
they encounter, it results that 50 % from all the potential
occultations I have compiled are crowded within less than a 0.9
magnitude range under the UCAC4 technical limit ...
As now we
reliably know - thanks to GAIA-DR1 and VizieR - the precise
2015.0 position of many V < 16.5 stars, then for a small (N ~ 40)
sub-sample of my ~2100 V < 16.5 targets which are present in both
UCAC4 and URAT1, I was able to compare how far from the GAIA
reference are falling the UCAC4 and URAT1 calculated
positions.
Thanks to this sub-sample, which, because of my V <
16.5 fixed condition, is automatically set
around V ~ 16.0, I have discovered that UCAC4 is
clearly under-performing relative to
URAT1. In contrast, around the magnitude R ~ 13, URAT1 and UCAC4 have
shown more equal performances, though I guess that URAT1 is still
keeping some advantage.
So it turns out that around V= 16.0,
UCAC4 is undoubtly working too close to its technical limit. In
consequence I clearly had to choose URAT1.
But I must replace URAT1 by UCAC4 in
all the star fields more south than declination -15 (special case of
Pluto excepted).
The URAT1 possess a technical limit higher by
about 2 magnitudes than the UCAC4, as using a modern back-illuminated
CCD definitely outperforming its predecessor. URAT1 also uses longer
exposures, plus a redder filter than the UCAC4 (by ~100 nm), which a
bit reduces the atmospheric turbulence and probably improves the image
sharpness of the five elements lens. I guess that the URAT positions
of mean epoch were nicely close to GAIA's ones, and, as now we only
are three years or so after the mean epoch, that the positional
blurring due to provisional proper motions have not yet erased the
URAT initial advantage.
ABOUT THE STAR MAGNITUDES
The "Mv" magnitude
reported in the worldmap header sometimes will seem contradicting my V
< 16.5 rule. Actually one cannot accept as a valid V neither the
G-magnitude of GAIA (a very wide 650 nm band), nor the instrumental
UCAC4 and URAT1 magnitudes, as all these three magnitudes actually are
approximations of R. [NB: When OCCULT prints the same value for
Mv, Mp and Mr, this is R again]. So, when possible, I took V from
the most reliable source, the AAVSO APASS (accessed from VizieR
or through Guide9). In GAIA-DR1 the value "phot_g_mean" of
the magnitude G is very interesting, as more accurate than anything
else and probably homogeneous on the whole sky. G is a red magnitude,
but knowing from any source the star colour (for example from 2MASS
the infrared (J-Ks) colour index), one may derive thanks to G a
refined approximation of V and Rc. Solving the faint stars
photometric puzzle by combining several catalogs will disappear with
the publication of the GAIA multi-colour data.
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